MinyanBlog

Testing This Live Blog Software

2008-01-14T10:55:00.000-05:00

Daily Options Report: Feel The Pain

2008-01-04T14:36:00.000-05:00

Kind of beyond ugly here.

I tend to find on move's like this, buying gamma tends to work. Buying puts or put spreads vs. some stock, something like that. I'm doing a bit of the latter in the SPY.

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The Kirk Report:

2008-01-04T13:30:00.000-05:00

At the end of the first week of the new year, I would like to take this opportunity to reveal my goals, plans, and changes to the website in 2008. This is an important post and one you'll want to take time to read thoroughly.

For the past few weeks, it was a good time for rest, reflection, evaluation, and planning for 2008. I think it was time well spent and, like many of you, I'm well motivated to achieve great things in the coming year. I've always enjoyed the process of taking time to reflect and think, as well as to seriously evaluate what I'm doing and whether I'm reaching my goals. As the great philosopher Socrates once said, "the unexamined life is not worth living." How very true.

The Shark Report: Trading Ugly

2008-01-04T13:05:00.000-05:00

The pain continue into the afternoon as the markets are again near their lows of the year. The DJIA -200, NAZ -71 and SPX -25.5.

Sector strength- utils-

Sector weakness- homies, semis, retail, tech, airlines and real estate;

ZackStocks: CTrip.com International (CTRP) - Going Places in China

2008-01-04T12:32:00.000-05:00

When Chinese citizens decide to spend a vacation traveling, chances are they will use CTrip.com (CTRP) at some point in the planning stages. The company operates much the same as the US equivalent Orbitz or Expedia except for the fact that CTRP enjoys what essentially amounts to monopoly status. Bear Stearns estimates that the company holds a 57% market share of the Chinese online travel market and that level has been growing quarter after quarter.

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Abnormal Returns: Friday links: hedge fund lite

2008-01-04T12:28:00.000-05:00

“Stocks rarely rise from over an 18 times P/E multiple unless profit margins rise or bond yields drop.” (TheStreet.com)

2007 stock sector performance in one graph. (Crossing Wall Street)

Money managers back the rise of ‘hedge fund lite.’ (Economist.com)

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Mish: Unemployment Soars as Private Sector Jobs Contract

2008-01-04T12:12:00.001-05:00

There was finally some dose of reality in the December jobs report. But as weak as the headline number was (and it was very weak), the details were even worse. Let's take a look at The Employment Situation: December 2007.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.

Value Plays: Friday Links

2008-01-04T12:12:00.000-05:00

Forget the 60's, Bloggystyle, Credit Cards, Hmmm...

Schaeffer's Trading Floor Blog: Stock Comparison - The Charles Schwab Corporation, TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., and E-Trade Financial Corporation

2008-01-04T12:08:00.000-05:00

Shares of E-Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC) have been in the news recently, first on word that ex-CEO Mitchell Caplan was selling stock and then with the story of his $10.9 million payout. The stock has been hit over the last few months but that same fate has not been suffered The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) or TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. (AMTD). The chart below shows the relative performance over the last six months.

Kathy Lien: December Non-Farm Payrolls Raises Odds for 50bp Rate Cut

2008-01-04T12:06:00.000-05:00

Non-Farm Payrolls in the month of December shocked the financial markets by increasing only 18k, which is almost as bearish as negative job growth because the last time we saw levels worse than this was in August 2003 when the US economy shed 42k jobs. The US dollar fell 100 pips against the Japanese Yen in a blink of an eye and rallied by almost the same amount against the Euro.

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VIX and More: The Low Fear Selloff

2008-01-04T11:49:00.000-05:00

Now that most of the holiday-related “calendar reversion” (nicely coined by Adam at the Daily Options Report) is behind us, we have the opportunity to get a fresh look at unadorned volatility. You know what? There is not that much of it out there, particularly given the current market conditions.

Alpha Trends: Can IWM Turn Here?

2008-01-04T11:40:00.000-05:00

Very risky if considering for a long trade.

Trading Goddess: Wow! Look at the Volume

2008-01-04T11:36:00.000-05:00

These stocks are up in price and up in volume by:

Afraid To Trade:

2008-01-04T10:45:00.000-05:00

Google has been a leading stock in 2007, and traders expect it to continue to outperform. A classic pattern in technical analysis is forming which we can monitor for resolution, or potentially trade for profit.

Google is forming a triangle consolidation, out of which price can be expected to trend for a sustained period following the break.

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Stockbee: Go where the oil is

2008-01-04T07:52:00.000-05:00

The energy sectors has been attracting buy interest in current market conditions. The high oil price is a clear catalyst for the sector move. So while the overall market might not be very attractive some sectors are where the action is.

Daily Options Report: Volatility Chart Du Jour; GOOG

2008-01-04T07:36:00.000-05:00

So a commenter had an interesting question yesterday. Basically, can you buy gamma a few weeks ahead of earnings, knowing volatility is going to spike up ahead of the number.

My answer is "not really".

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TraderFeed: Investment Wisdom From Dick Davis

2008-01-04T05:52:00.000-05:00

I've been reading The Dick Davis Dividend, a recent book written by the well-known market commentator, and have to say that it offers some of the sanest perspectives on trading and investment I've encountered in a while. Davis began his newsletter in 1982 and has been offering commentary on the markets for the past forty years. This book is a distillation of the wisdom he's acquired over that period.

Technically Speaking: Thursday Night Lights?

2008-01-03T19:35:00.000-05:00

Many ways to analyze the market, from top down, to bottom up (stock by stock). What are some of the big dogs doing?

Bill Rempel: More Predicting GDP With Two Variables

2008-01-03T18:33:00.000-05:00

It would be good to go back and review Predicting GDP With Two Variables. Keep in mind that I generally don’t see anything actionable in modeling GDP, jobless claims, or other such stuff, and don’t use that type of modeling in my trading. My point in showing these models is to demonstrate that the vast majority of econopundits are outsmarting themselves – not that that’s a difficult proposition – and that a bug with access to data and some skilz can do a better job in 30 minutes or less.

The initial take was a prediction of next Calendar Year’s GDP change using the Consumer Price Index: All Urban Consumers, All Items and Civilian Unemployment Rate from the end of the second quarter of the previous year, that is, using final June xx data to predict final change over calendar year xx+1. The model looked promising, and showed CPI increase as a drag on future GDP and high unemployment as an engine for higher future GDP, both of which make sense from an Austrian Business Cycle perspective. Based on that data, 2008 was projected to be at trend (+3.3%) and above the projection that (would have been) made for 2007 (based on 2Q ‘06 data) of +2.7%.

The Stock Bandit: Patience Takes Courage

2008-01-03T13:09:00.000-05:00

Trading means many things to different people. Some love the excitement and the thrill of a financial adventure. Some people want something to talk about and discuss, while others simply want a hobby. However, plenty of us are in it for the money.

For those who are purely seeking profits, there are many ways to play the game. Different approaches and timeframes will require a variety of strategies, but we all have something in common: if we choose to play at the wrong times, it’ll cost us.

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Bullish Jim:

2008-01-02T22:13:00.000-05:00

As regular readers of my blog may recall I often cope with losing money by crunching numbers. For instance, a cruddy day in the markets like today left me with an acute need to analyze some data. To that therapeutic end, here's the question I wanted to answer after the markets closed today:

Does the result of the first trading day of the year hold any predictive value for how the market will perform for the year as a whole?

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NakedShorts: Best Lawyer of America 2008’ indicted

2008-01-02T14:44:00.000-05:00

Joseph Collins in court yesterday. Image borrowed from Bloomberg.

In one of the more dramatic lump-of-coal-in-your-stocking moves in recent memory, the US Attorney for the Southern District of New York announced that a federal grand jury had issued an 11-count indictment against Joseph P. Collins, the Mayer Brown partner who was long-time outside consigliere to the Refco crime syndicate.

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